Bracketology 3/11

Not a lot of chances. Putting in the automatic qualifiers, and just a few changes, but nothing effecting the higher seeds.

Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.

Spokane- Gonzaga and Oregon

Sacramento – San Diego State and Wisconsin

Tampa- Florida State and Louisville

Cleveland- Dayton and Michigan State

St. Louis- Creighton and Kentucky

Greensboro- Duke and Maryland

Albany – Seton Hall and Villanova

1- Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor, Dayton

2- San Diego State, Florida State, Creighton, Villanova

3- Seton Hall, Duke, Michigan State, Maryland

4- Oregon, Kentucky, Louisville, Wisconsin

5- Butler, Ohio State, Auburn, West Virginia

6-  Penn State, BYU, Colorado, Michigan

7- Houston, Iowa, Illinois, Virginia

8- St. Mary’s, LSU, Florida, Arizona

9- Wichita State, Marquette, USC, Providence

10- Oklahoma, Rutgers, Xavier, Utah State

11- East Tennessee State, Texas Tech, Indiana, Arizona State/Cincinnati

12- Richmond/Stanford, Yale, Stephen F Austin, Liberty

13- Akron, North Texas, Vermont, New Mexico State

14- Belmont, Bradley, Hofstra, Colgate

15-  Little Rock, Eastern Washington, North Dakota State, UC Irvine,

16- Northern Kentucky, Siena, Winthrop, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central, Robert Morris

First Four Out: Mississippi State, NC State, Texas, UCLA,

Still Alive: Rhode Island, Arkansas, St. Louis, Memphis, Purdue, Northern Iowa

Bracketology 3/10

Only a few changes from yesterday. BYU has slipped to a 6 seed and West Virginia has moved up in their spot.

Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.

Spokane- Gonzaga and Oregon

Sacramento – San Diego State and Wisconsin

Tampa- Florida State and Louisville

Cleveland- Dayton and Michigan State

St. Louis- Creighton and Kentucky

Greensboro- Duke and Maryland

Albany – Seton Hall and Villanova

1- Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor, Dayton

2- San Diego State, Florida State, Creighton, Villanova

3- Seton Hall, Duke, Michigan State, Maryland

4- Oregon, Kentucky, Louisville, Wisconsin

5- Butler, Ohio State, Auburn, West Virginia

6-  Penn State, BYU, Colorado, Michigan

7- Houston, Iowa, Illinois, Virginia

8- St. Mary’s, LSU, Florida, Arizona

9- Wichita State, Marquette, USC, Providence

10- Oklahoma, Rutgers, Xavier, Utah State

11- East Tennessee State, Texas Tech, Indiana, Arizona State/Cincinnati

12- Richmond/Stanford, Yale, Stephen F Austin, Liberty

13- Akron, North Texas, Vermont, New Mexico State

14- Little Rock, Belmont, Bradley, Hofstra

15-  Eastern Washington, North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Colgate

16- Northern Kentucky, Siena, St. Francis PA, Winthrop, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Texas, UCLA, Rhode Island

Still Alive: Arkansas, NC State, St. Louis, Memphis, Purdue, Northern Iowa

Bracketology 3/9

Dayton has passed San Diego State, but only after much debate. Dayton’s lack of quality wins concerns me. If they lose in the A-10 tournament I’ll move SDSU back up. Villanova, Creighton (2 seed), Seton Hall, Duke, Maryland and Michigan State (3 seeds) are so close. It will come down to performance in the conference tournaments. Kentucky can enter the conversation with an SEC tournament victory.

Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.

Spokane- Gonzaga and Oregon

Sacramento – San Diego State and Wisconsin

Tampa- Florida State and Louisville

Cleveland- Dayton and Michigan State

St. Louis- Creighton and Kentucky

Greensboro- Duke and Maryland

Albany – Seton Hall and Villanova

1- Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor, Dayton

2- San Diego State, Florida State, Creighton, Villanova

3- Seton Hall, Duke, Michigan State, Maryland

4- Oregon, Kentucky, Louisville, Wisconsin

5- Butler, Ohio State, Auburn, BYU

6-  Penn State, West Virginia, Colorado, Michigan

7- Houston, Iowa, Illinois, Virginia

8- LSU, St. Mary’s, Wichita State, Florida

9- Arizona, Marquette, USC, Providence

10- Oklahoma, Rutgers, Xavier, Utah State

11- Texas Tech, Indiana, Arizona State/Cincinnati, East Tennessee State

12- Richmond/Stanford, Yale, Stephen F Austin, Liberty

13- Akron, North Texas, Vermont, New Mexico State

14- Wright State, Little Rock, Belmont, Bradley

15-  Eastern Washington, Hofstra, North Dakota State, UC Irvine

16- Colgate, Siena, St. Francis PA, Winthrop, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Texas, UCLA, Rhode Island

Still Alive: Arkansas, NC State, St. Louis, Memphis, Purdue, Northern Iowa

Bracketology

It was a rough night on the bubble as Stanford, Wichita State and Arizona State. All will remain in the field, but are getting closer to the cut line. The one line will go unchanged again. Creighton replaces Maryland on the 2 line. The race for the last 2 seed is really tight between Creighton, Duke, Maryland, Villanova, Oregon, Michigan State and Louisville. A win or loss here or there could swing you from a 2 to 4 in a hurry.

Memphis moved in with a win over Wichita State. They are now 8-6 against Quad 1/2. There 6-3 against Quad 3 isn’t good, but no one on the cut line has a pretty resume. We will start to put some teams into the tournament this weekend. By Monday a lot of things could change.

Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.

Spokane- Gonzaga and Oregon

Sacramento – San Diego State and Ohio State

Tampa- Florida State and Kentucky

Cleveland- Dayton and Cleveland

St. Louis- Creighton and Louisville

Greensboro- Duke and Maryland

Albany – Seton Hall and Villanova

1- Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State

2- Dayton, Florida State, Seton Hall, Creighton

3- Duke, Villanova, Maryland, Oregon

4- Michigan State, Louisville, Kentucky, Ohio State

5- Butler, Penn State, Auburn, BYU

6-  Wisconsin, Iowa,  Michigan, Colorado

7- Houston, West Virginia, Marquette, Illinois

8- Arizona, LSU, Virginia, St. Mary’s

9- USC, Florida, Providence, Wichita State

10- Indiana, Oklahoma, Xavier, Texas Tech,

11- Stanford, Arizona State,  Rutgers/Cincinnati, Northern Iowa

12- Purdue/Memphis East Tennessee State, Yale, Stephen F Austin

13- Akron, Liberty, North Texas, Vermont

14- Wright State, New Mexico State, Little Rock, Belmont

15-  Eastern Washington, Hofstra, South Dakota State, UC Irvine

16- Colgate, Siena, St. Francis PA, Winthrop, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

First Four Out: Utah State, Texas, UCLA, Rhode Island

Still Alive: Arkansas, Mississippi State, NC State, Richmond

Bracketology 3/3

Time for a new bracketology with a deeper dive into the numbers. There have only been a few games since the last one, but I really wanted to take a closer look at each team before conference tournaments start.

The first tournament that bubble teams will have a close eye on is the Mountain West. If anyone outside of San Diego State and Utah State win it will be one less spot. Utah State is a bubble team themselves. Making it to a championship game and then a close loss to SDSU should be enough but I wouldn’t count on it. The Aggies loss at New Mexico to end the regular season definitely has them sweating.

OVC- No bubble worries but Belmont, Murray State and Austin Peay are heavy favorites.

Missouri Valley- Bubble teams everywhere are going to be cheering for Northern Iowa. If UNI doesn’t win it all and they get the championship they should get in. But, like Utah State you never know.

Southern- East Tennessee State and Furman both have bubble chances. UNC-Greensboro probably needs to win the conference tournament to get in. ETSU has the best chances of the three to get in but neither ETSU or Furman would feel great about their chances if they don’t win the conference tournament.

Really hard to figure out Florida State, Creighton and Seton Hall. I ultimately decided to move Seton Hall ahead of Creighton due to their 10-5 record against Quad 1 compared to Creighton’s 8-7. FSU is 5-4 against Quad 1 but has a better victory (at Louisville) than either Seton Hall or Creighton.

Kentucky and Louisville are also close for the 3rd and 4th 3 seed. Kentucky is 12-4 against Quad 1/2 compared to Louisville’s 10-6 but the bad loss to Evansville keeps them one spot behind Louisville. Villanova also has an argument for one of those spots as well with a 14-7 Quad 1/2 record.

Butler moves up for me after looking closer at their resume. 13-9 in Quad 1/2 with no bad losses. BYU slides one spot down as they are a combined 8-7 against Quad 1/2 and that is Iowa’s record against Quad 1 alone. The only issue with that is Iowa’s 2 quad 3 losses, but DePaul was playing better then and a road loss at Nebraska isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.

Spokane- Gonzaga and Auburn

Sacramento – San Diego State and Oregon

Tampa- Florida State and Michigan State

Cleveland- Dayton and Kentucky

St. Louis- Creighton and Louisville

Greensboro- Maryland and Duke

Albany – Seton Hall and Villanova

1- Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State

2- Dayton, Maryland, Florida State, Seton Hall

3- Creighton, Duke, Louisville, Kentucky

4-Villanova, Michigan State, Oregon, Auburn

5- Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, Butler

6- BYU, Michigan, Houston, Wisconsin

7- Colordao, West Virginia, Marquette, Illinois

8- Arizona, LSU, Virginia, St. Mary’s

9- USC, Oklahoma, Florida, Arizona St.

10- Indiana, Xavier, Texas Tech, Stanford

11- Wichita State, Providence, Rutgers/Cincinnati, Northern Iowa

12- UCLA/Utah State East Tennessee State, Yale, Stephen F Austin

13- Akron, Liberty, North Texas, Vermont

14- Wright State, New Mexico State, Little Rock, Belmont

15-  Eastern Washington, Hofstra, South Dakota State, UC Irvine

16- Colgate, Siena, St. Francis PA, Winthrop, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central

First Four Out: Richmond, Rhode Island, Mississippi State, NC State,

Still Alive: Arkansas, Texas, Purdue, Alabama, Memphis, Furman

Bracketology 3/1

Baylor fell to TCU but isn’t going to drop from the 1 line or the #2 overall seed. It was a tough weekend for the 2 line as Maryland, Florida State and Creighton all lost. Seton Hall is now breathing down the neck of all three for a 2 seed. They are my top rated 3 seed at the moment after their win at Marquette.

Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.

Spokane- Gonzaga and Auburn

Sacramento – San Diego State and Oregon

Tampa- Florida State and Michigan State

Cleveland- Dayton and Louisville

St. Louis- Creighton and Kentucky

Greensboro- Maryland and Duke

Albany – Seton Hall and Villanova

BYU has to go to a Thursday/Saturday site as they are not allowed to play on Sundays. Right now they would have to Tampa if the seeds held true.

1- Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State

2- Dayton, Maryland, Florida State, Creighton

3- Seton Hall, Duke, Kentucky, Louisville

4-Villanova, Oregon, Michigan State, Auburn

5- Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, BYU

6- Michigan, Colorado, Houston, Wisconsin

7- Butler, Arizona, Illinois, Marquette

8- LSU, Virginia, West Virginia, St. Mary’s

9- Oklahoma, Florida, Indiana, Arizona St.

10- Texas Tech, Xavier, USC, Providence

11- Rutgers, Cincinnati, East Tennessee State, Northern Iowa

12- UCLA/Wichita State, Utah State/Mississippi State, Yale, Stephen F Austin

13- Akron, Liberty, North Texas, Vermont

14- Wright State, New Mexico State, Little Rock, Belmont

15-  Montana, Hofstra, South Dakota State, UC Irvine

16- Colgate, Siena, St. Francis PA, Radford, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

First Four Out: Rhode Island, NC State, Arkansas, Richmond

Next Four Out: Furman, Texas, Purdue, Clemson

Bracketology 2/26

Duke’s loss to Wake Forest puts them in jeopardy of dropping to a 3 seed. I have moved Creighton ahead of the Blue Devils as they have no losses outside of Quad 1 compared to Duke’s 3. Louisville has also dropped to my last 3 seed with Kentucky, Oregon and Auburn breathing down their throat.

West Virginia continues their free fall and is now the last 5 seed and I almost dropped them to a 6 in favor of Ohio State. From a pod standpoint I also struggle with Baylor. Some bracketologist have them in Omaha and some in St. Louis. They are technically closer to St. Louis but travel is closer to Omaha. Will be interesting to see what the committee does. If they end up the #1 overall they will get the choice.

Also, I had to remove Merrimack from the tournament as they are not eligible.

Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.

Spokane- Gonzaga and Auburn

Sacramento – San Diego State and Oregon

Tampa- Florida State and Kentucky

Cleveland- Dayton and Michigan State

St. Louis- Louisville and Creighton

Greensboro- Maryland and Duke

Albany – Seton Hall and Villanova

BYU has to go to a Thursday/Saturday site as they are not allowed to play on Sundays. Right now they would have to Tampa if the seeds held true.

1- Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State

2- Dayton, Maryland, Florida State, Creighton

3- Duke, Seton Hall, Villanova, Louisville

4- Kentucky, Oregon, Auburn, Michigan State

5- Penn State, Colorado, Arizona, West Virginia

6- Ohio State, Iowa, BYU, Michigan

7- Butler, LSU, Marquette, Houston

8- Wisconsin, Illinois, St. Mary’s, Arizona State

9- Virginia, Florida, Indiana, Texas Tech

10- Rutgers, Wichita State, Rhode Island, Utah St

11- Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Xavier East Tennessee St

12- Providence, USC, Northern Iowa, Yale, Stephen F Austin

13- Akron, Liberty, North Texas, Vermont

14- Wright State, New Mexico State, Little Rock, Belmont

15-  Montana, Hofstra, South Dakota State, UC Irvine

16- Colgate, Siena, St. Francis PA, Radford, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

 

Last 4 Out: Stanford, Richmond, Arkansas, NC State

Next 4: Furman, UNC-G, Purdue, UCLA

Holding On: Georgetown, Alabama

Bracketology 2/23

As every game seems to matter more as we get down to the end of February yesterday was by far the best day of the year. Anything can happen in college basketball and teams that were 1 seeds and had a combined record of 77-2 went 0-3 yesterday. That being said, none of them fell off my 1 line, but it does put a lot more pressure on them down the stretch as their margin for error has shrunk.

Kansas has moved to my #1 overall seed after the win. No one on the 1/2 lines moved at all but Dayton is closing in on San Diego State if they should hiccup at all. Maryland and Duke have an easier path to climb should they run the table in the regular season and win the conference tournament. I would be hard pressed to not move them past SDSU or Dayton just due to the level of competition.

Creighton has moved to the three line and West Virginia has fallen down the 4 line and is in big danger of losing that spot. Penn State’s second consecutive loss is the only thing that kept them hanging on.

Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.

Spokane- Gonzaga and Auburn

Sacramento – San Diego State and Oregon

Tampa- Florida State and Kentucky

Cleveland- Dayton and Villanova

St. Louis- Louisville and Creighton

Greensboro- Maryland and Duke

Albany – West Virginia and Seton Hall

BYU has to go to a Thursday/Saturday site as they are not allowed to play on Sundays. Right now they would have to Tampa if the seeds held true.

1- Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State

2- Dayton, Maryland, Duke, Florida State

3- Louisville, Seton Hall, Villanova, Creighton

4- Kentucky, Oregon, Auburn, West Virginia

5- Penn State, Michigan State, Colorado, Arizona

6- Ohio State, Iowa, BYU, Butler

7- Michigan, LSU, Texas Tech, Marquette

8- Wisconsin, Houston, Illinois, St. Mary’s

9- Virginia, Arizona State, Florida, Rutgers

10- USC, Indiana, Wichita State, Stanford

11- Cincinnati, Rhode Island, Utah St, NC State, East Tennessee St

12- Xavier, Richmond, Northern Iowa, Yale, Stephen F Austin

13- Akron, Liberty, North Texas, Vermont

14- Wright State, New Mexico State, Little Rock, Belmont

15-  Montana, Hofstra, South Dakota State, UC Irvine

16- Colgate, Siena, Merrimack, Radford, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

 

Last 4 Out: Providence, Arkansas, Memphis, Oklahoma

Next 4: UNC-G, Purdue, Mississippi State, UCLA

Holding On: Georgetown

Bracketology 2/20

A lot of bubble teams took big hits last night. Rutgers is playing their way from safely in, to bubble watch really quick. Their home loss to Michigan has them down to a nine seed. They finish with Wisconsin, Penn State, Maryland and Purdue. If they go 0-4 and drop to 18-13, 9-11 they are going to be sweating bullets heading into Selection Sunday.

NC State’s win over Duke has pushed them into the field as Minnesota has fallen out and needs an extremely strong finish to get back into the field. Mississippi State also is into the field after Georgetown’s loss to Providence. Arizona State is also in by default as Furman is now out as I am projecting East Tennessee State to get the auto-bid (would also be an at-large) in the Southern Conference. Alabama also exits after a bad loss to Texas A&M and Indiana moves in with their win over Minnesota.

Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.

Spokane- Gonzaga and Creighton

Sacramento – San Diego State and Oregon

Tampa- Florida State and Penn State

Cleveland- Dayton and Villanova

St. Louis- Louisville and Kentucky

Greensboro- Maryland and Duke

Albany – West Virginia and Seton Hall

BYU has to go to a Thursday/Saturday site as they are not allowed to play on Sundays. Right now they would have to Tampa if the seeds held true.

1- Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State

2- Dayton, Maryland, Duke, Florida State

3- Louisville, Seton Hall, Villanova, West Virginia

4- Kentucky, Creighton, Penn State, Oregon

5- Auburn, Michigan State, Colorado, Arizona

6- Ohio State, Marquette, Butler, Iowa

7- Houston, Michigan, BYU, LSU

8- Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Illinois, St. Mary’s

9- Rutgers, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Virginia

10- Xavier,Florida, USC, Wichita State

11- Arizona State, Northern Iowa, Utah St, East Tennessee St

12- NC State, Purdue, Mississippi State, Indiana, Yale, Stephen F Austin

13- Liberty, North Texas, Bowling Green, Vermont

14- Wright State, New Mexico State, Little Rock, Murray State

15-  Montana, Hofstra, South Dakota State, UC Irvine

16- Colgate, Siena, St Francis PA, Winthrop, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

 

Last 4 Out: Georgetown, Stanford, Richmond, Memphis

Next 4: Alabama, Arkansas, Cincinnati, UNC-G

Holding On: VCU, Minnesota, Furman

Bracketology 2/16

A lot of movement on all the lines. Louisville had their second straight questionable loss and have fallen off the 2 seed. Fellow ACC member Florida State has now moved up to a 2 seed. We are getting close enough where we can start projecting some of the host sites.

Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.

Spokane- Gonzaga and Creighton

Sacramento – San Diego State and Kentucky

Tampa- Florida State and Auburn

Cleveland- Dayton and West Virginia

St. Louis- Louisville and Villanova

Greensboro- Maryland and Duke

Albany – Penn State and Seton Hall

BYU has to go to a Thursday/Saturday site as they are not allowed to play on Sundays. Right now they would have to Tampa if the seeds held true.

1- Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State

2- Duke, Dayton, Maryland, Florida State

3- Louisville, Penn State, West Virginia, Auburn

4- Seton Hall, Villanova, Kentucky, Creighton

5- Oregon, Butler, Michigan State, Colorado

6- Ohio State, Marquette, Arizona, Iowa

7- LSU, Houston, Michigan, BYU

8- Wisconsin, Rutgers, Texas Tech, Illinois

9- Rhode Island, Oklahoma, USC, St. Mary’s

10- Xavier, Purdue, Florida, Alabama

11- Northern Iowa, Virginia, Utah St, East Tennessee St, Minnesota

12- Georgetown, Wichita St,  Liberty, Furman, Stephen F Austin,

13- North Texas, Bowling Green, Yale, Vermont

14- Wright State, New Mexico State, Little Rock, Murray State

15-  Montana, Hofstra, South Dakota State, UC Irvine

16- Colgate, Rider, Robert Morris, Winthrop, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk State

 

Last 4 Out: Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Stanford, Arkanasas

Next 4: Indiana, Arizona State, NC State, Richmond

Holding On: VCU, Memphis