Time for a new bracketology with a deeper dive into the numbers. There have only been a few games since the last one, but I really wanted to take a closer look at each team before conference tournaments start.
The first tournament that bubble teams will have a close eye on is the Mountain West. If anyone outside of San Diego State and Utah State win it will be one less spot. Utah State is a bubble team themselves. Making it to a championship game and then a close loss to SDSU should be enough but I wouldn’t count on it. The Aggies loss at New Mexico to end the regular season definitely has them sweating.
OVC- No bubble worries but Belmont, Murray State and Austin Peay are heavy favorites.
Missouri Valley- Bubble teams everywhere are going to be cheering for Northern Iowa. If UNI doesn’t win it all and they get the championship they should get in. But, like Utah State you never know.
Southern- East Tennessee State and Furman both have bubble chances. UNC-Greensboro probably needs to win the conference tournament to get in. ETSU has the best chances of the three to get in but neither ETSU or Furman would feel great about their chances if they don’t win the conference tournament.
Really hard to figure out Florida State, Creighton and Seton Hall. I ultimately decided to move Seton Hall ahead of Creighton due to their 10-5 record against Quad 1 compared to Creighton’s 8-7. FSU is 5-4 against Quad 1 but has a better victory (at Louisville) than either Seton Hall or Creighton.
Kentucky and Louisville are also close for the 3rd and 4th 3 seed. Kentucky is 12-4 against Quad 1/2 compared to Louisville’s 10-6 but the bad loss to Evansville keeps them one spot behind Louisville. Villanova also has an argument for one of those spots as well with a 14-7 Quad 1/2 record.
Butler moves up for me after looking closer at their resume. 13-9 in Quad 1/2 with no bad losses. BYU slides one spot down as they are a combined 8-7 against Quad 1/2 and that is Iowa’s record against Quad 1 alone. The only issue with that is Iowa’s 2 quad 3 losses, but DePaul was playing better then and a road loss at Nebraska isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Omaha- Baylor and Kansas pods.
Spokane- Gonzaga and Auburn
Sacramento – San Diego State and Oregon
Tampa- Florida State and Michigan State
Cleveland- Dayton and Kentucky
St. Louis- Creighton and Louisville
Greensboro- Maryland and Duke
Albany – Seton Hall and Villanova
1- Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State
2- Dayton, Maryland, Florida State, Seton Hall
3- Creighton, Duke, Louisville, Kentucky
4-Villanova, Michigan State, Oregon, Auburn
5- Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, Butler
6- BYU, Michigan, Houston, Wisconsin
7- Colordao, West Virginia, Marquette, Illinois
8- Arizona, LSU, Virginia, St. Mary’s
9- USC, Oklahoma, Florida, Arizona St.
10- Indiana, Xavier, Texas Tech, Stanford
11- Wichita State, Providence, Rutgers/Cincinnati, Northern Iowa
12- UCLA/Utah State East Tennessee State, Yale, Stephen F Austin
13- Akron, Liberty, North Texas, Vermont
14- Wright State, New Mexico State, Little Rock, Belmont
15- Eastern Washington, Hofstra, South Dakota State, UC Irvine
16- Colgate, Siena, St. Francis PA, Winthrop, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
First Four Out: Richmond, Rhode Island, Mississippi State, NC State,
Still Alive: Arkansas, Texas, Purdue, Alabama, Memphis, Furman